Xavier Becerra surges in polls following Democratic frontrunner's departure, leaving undecided voters in play.
Category: Politics
In less than 50 days, Californians will head to the polls to decide who will move forward in the race for governor. The political dynamics have shifted dramatically following the recent withdrawal of Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell, who dropped out this week in light of sexual assault accusations. According to a new poll from Inside California Politics and Emerson College Polling, this development has left many undecided supporters available for other candidates, particularly benefiting former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra.
The latest Emerson College Polling survey, conducted on April 14-15 among 1,000 likely primary voters, reveals a crowded and unsettled field ahead of California’s June 2 gubernatorial primary. With Swalwell's exit, Becerra has seen a remarkable 15-point jump in support among Democrats, rising to 10%. Last month, he was underperforming, but the poll indicates that the political environment is wide open for him and others. "This poll emphasizes the degree to which this is so wide open," said Menlo College Political Science Professor Melissa Michelson. "This should actually be encouraging news to the entire rest of the field that they might get another look," she added.
The poll shows Republican Steve Hilton leading with 17% support, followed closely by fellow Republican Chad Bianco and Democrat Tom Steyer, who are tied at 14%. Becerra is now neck-and-neck with Katie Porter, also at 10%, and Matt Mahan has moved up to 5%. With 23% of voters remaining undecided, the upcoming weeks are critically important for candidates as they prepare for the primary.
The implications of Swalwell's departure extend beyond just a shake-up in polling numbers. With Democrats making up 50.2% of likely voters compared to Republicans at 26.6% and independents or others at 23.2%, the Democratic primary is particularly consequential. The poll highlights that the top issues for voters are the economy (41.1%), housing affordability (19.8%), and threats to democracy (9.7%). These issues resonate deeply with voters, and candidates will need to address them effectively to secure undecided voters.
Michelson notes that Becerra's rise could be attributed to voters seeking a candidate who they can trust, especially in light of the recent controversies surrounding Swalwell. "Maybe the response to Swalwell is, I need somebody where I can be sure that I've put my support behind this candidate, that there's nothing surprising and terrible that I'm going to learn about them next week," she said. This sentiment reflects a broader desire for stability and reliability among voters, which could play a key role in the upcoming primary.
Strategically, Swalwell's exit has opened up the field for candidates who may have previously been overlooked. Political analysts suggest that Becerra's rise in the polls indicates a shift in voter sentiment, as many Democrats appear to be reconsidering their options. "Most observers assumed that the other frontrunners, Katie Porter and Tom Steyer, would benefit the most," noted U.C. Berkeley Political Communications Professor Dan Schnur. "But it looks like Democrats might be taking a longer look at some of the candidates who they had previously dismissed."
This shift could have long-term implications for the Democratic Party in California, especially as candidates prepare for the April 22 debate in San Francisco, where 5% support is needed to qualify. With Becerra and Mahan now officially qualifying, the debate will feature a more diverse panel, which could attract more voters. Michelson emphasized this point, stating, "Now that Becerra has qualified for the debate now, it's not an all-white debate. And so I think that actually means that more of the eligible candidates will agree to participate. It's going to be a pretty exciting three weeks." This promise of diversity could engage a broader electorate and encourage turnout among historically underrepresented groups.
The polling data reveals key insights into the current political climate in California. With a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, the numbers indicate that the race remains highly competitive. Candidates will need to focus on key demographics to sway undecided voters. The electorate is diverse, with 47.8% identifying as White, 30.8% as Hispanic or Latino, and 10% as Black. As candidates craft their messages, they must resonate with these various groups to solidify their bases.
In terms of fundraising, candidates will likely ramp up their efforts in the coming weeks. With the primary approaching, the financial stakes will be higher than ever. Candidates who can effectively mobilize resources and engage with voters on pressing issues will have a distinct advantage as they head into the final stretch.
As the California gubernatorial primary approaches, several key factors will be important to monitor. The April 22 debate in San Francisco will be a major event, as candidates will have the opportunity to showcase their platforms and connect with voters. With Becerra now qualified for the debate, how he leverages this moment to solidify his support.
Another aspect to watch is how candidates address the top issues identified in the poll, particularly economic concerns and housing affordability. The candidates' responses to these issues will likely shape voter perceptions and influence undecided voters. As the primary date of June 2 nears, candidates will need to intensify their outreach efforts and engage with voters on the ground.
With 23% of voters still undecided, the next few weeks could be game-changing for candidates looking to make a mark in this competitive race. The dynamics are shifting, and as Becerra's support grows, it how the other candidates will respond to reclaim their footing in a rapidly changing political environment.