A new poll shows Olivia Chow maintaining an 8-point advantage over Brad Bradford, but residents are split on the city's direction
Category: Politics
Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow continues to hold a solid lead over challenger Councillor Brad Bradford in the city's mayoral race, according to a new poll from Liaison Strategies. The survey, conducted from July 24 to July 26, 2026, reveals that if an election were held today, Chow would receive 49% of the vote among decided and leaning voters, compared to Bradford's 41%. This marks a slight narrowing from a previous survey where Chow led by nine points.
The recent Toronto Pulse survey indicates that Chow's support remains strong among decided and leaning voters, but the political climate is shifting. Among all voters surveyed, Chow's support stands at 39%, with Bradford at 33%, 8% for other candidates, and 20% undecided. The survey's results highlight a growing recognition of Bradford among voters, as his favourability has increased to 31%, up from 29% in the previous poll.
Chow's job approval rating is currently at 51%, with 43% disapproving of her performance. This mixed feedback reflects a divided sentiment among Torontonians about the city's direction, with 46% believing Toronto is headed in the right direction and an equal 46% feeling it is not. This split could potentially provide Bradford the opportunity to gain traction as he becomes a more defined challenger.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, noted, "This remains Olivia Chow's race, but it is not a slam dunk. Among decided and leaning voters, she leads Brad Bradford by 8 points, 49% to 41%." He added that the city’s mood being evenly split presents a warning sign for Chow. As more voters form opinions about Bradford, both positive and negative perceptions are likely to rise, making him a more formidable opponent.
Geographically, Chow leads Bradford significantly in downtown Toronto (55% to 36%), North York (52% to 37%), and Scarborough (50% to 41%). Bradford's strongest support comes from Etobicoke, where he leads with 54% compared to Chow's 35%. This regional divide highlights the varying levels of support for each candidate across the city.
As the campaign progresses, it will be important to monitor how Bradford's increasing visibility impacts his polling numbers. With 20% of voters still undecided, there is room for both candidates to shift the dynamics of the race. Upcoming debates and public appearances will likely serve as key opportunities for Bradford to solidify his position and challenge Chow's lead.
The poll, which surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. As the election draws nearer, the candidates' strategies will be examined closely, especially in light of the city's divided sentiment. With Chow's approval stable but not overwhelming, and Bradford gaining ground, the race is shaping up to be competitive.
In essence, the next few weeks will be telling as both candidates navigate the challenges ahead, with Chow needing to maintain her lead and Bradford aiming to capitalize on the city's mixed feelings about its current leadership.